College football Week 7 betting nuggets

Ranked teams are 14-35 ATS (against the spread) versus unranked opponents this season (.290), on pace to be the worst mark since the AP Poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989 (current worst: .420 in 1994).

Underdogs in matchups between two FBS teams are winning SU (straight up) at a .310 clip, on pace to be the best mark in the past 40 seasons (current best: .288 in 1984). They are also covering at a .603 rate, also on pace to be the best mark in the past 40 seasons (current best: .552 in 1990).

In conference games outside the Power 5, underdogs are 18-6 ATS. And underdogs by 14 points or more are 32-16 ATS.

It’s also worth noting that the over went 19-8 last week. Overall, the over is 48-32-1 (.600) in conference games this season, including 35-21-1 (.625) in the Power 5 conferences.

Road favorites are putting up 37.7 points per game, on pace to be the most in the FBS era (current high: 34.8 ppg in 2013). Perhaps as a result, the over is 30-11-1 (.730) when the road team is favored this season. But road favorites are still 15-27 ATS (.360).

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.

FRIDAY

No. 17 SMU Mustangs (-6.5, 65) at Tulane Green Wave, 6 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

• Since 2019, SMU’s 8-1 ATS mark in its first five games of the season is the best in FBS.

• Tulane will be playing its 44th game against a ranked opponent since the AP Poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989 (all as an underdog). However, this marks just the second time the Green Wave are single-digit underdogs. The only previous instance came in 2013, and Tulane covered the 6.5-point spread in a 38-35 loss to TCU.

• Tulane is 5-0 ATS as a home underdog since 2017. The only Group of 5 team with more such ATS wins without a loss over that span is Florida International (6-0-1 ATS).

• Tulane is 2-10 ATS against ranked teams since 2009, including 1-4 ATS under Willie Fritz.

• The over is 11-5 in SMU games versus FBS opponents since the start of last season.

No. 14 BYU Cougars (-5.5, 62.5) at Houston Cougars, 9:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

• BYU has failed to cover in five of its last six games as a road favorite.

• BYU is 3-9 ATS under Kalani Sitake when favored by fewer than seven points.

• Houston is 19-7-1 ATS as an underdog since joining the AAC in 2013.

• Houston is 22-11-1 ATS in non-conference games since 2013.

• Dana Holgorsen is 6-11-1 ATS as a single-digit underdog against ranked opponents, including 1-3 ATS with Houston.

SATURDAY

No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-27, 64) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Noon ET (on ABC)

• Clemson is a favorite of at least 24 points against an unranked opponent for the 18th straight time (11-7 ATS, 18-0 SU), the longest such streak since the FBS/FCS split in 1978. The second-longest streak belongs to Alabama (13), ending last season against Mississippi State.

• Clemson is 16-5 ATS versus ACC opponents since 2018.

• Clemson is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games as a double-digit favorite.

• This would be the third time in the last two seasons Georgia Tech has been an underdog of at least 27 points, compared to just two such instances in 41 seasons from 1978 to 2018. The Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS in the previous four instances.

• Georgia Tech has failed to cover in their last five games versus ranked teams.

No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats (-3, 44) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Noon ET (on ESPN2)

• AP top-15 teams are 25-10 ATS when favored by three points or less against an unranked opponent dating back to 2010, including 11-4 ATS for AP top-10 teams.

• Tulsa is 6-0 ATS against ranked opponents since 2018. Only Purdue has as many ATS wins without a loss versus ranked teams over that span.

• Tulsa is 7-2 as an underdog since the start of last season.

• The under is 13-3 in Cincinnati games since the start of last season.

• The under is 14-5 in Cincinnati road games under Luke Fickell.

Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 13 Miami Hurricanes (-10.5, 48.5), Noon ET (on ACCN)

• Pittsburgh is 18-9-1 ATS on the road since Pat Narduzzi took over in 2015, including 5-1 ATS as a double-digit road underdog.

• Since 2009 (Clemson’s first full season under Dabo Swinney), ranked teams are 9-25 ATS following a game against Clemson (within the same season), including 2-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite. (Miami lost 42-17 at Clemson last week.)

• Miami was 3-0 ATS and SU this season before their game against Clemson.

• The under is 14-3 in Pittsburgh road games since 2017.

• The under is 5-1 when Pittsburgh is a double-digit road underdog under Narduzzi.

No. 15 Auburn Tigers (-3, 51.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks, Noon ET (on ESPN)

• Auburn has covered 11 of its last 15 games as a favorite.

• South Carolina is 2-16 SU (10-8 ATS) versus ranked opponents under Will Muschamp.

• South Carolina is 7-3 ATS under Muschamp when the line is between -3 and +3. And the under went 8-2 in those games.

Kentucky Wildcats at No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers (-6, 46), Noon ET (on SECN)

• Kentucky is 10-3 ATS against ranked opponents since 2015, its third season under Mark Stoops. Only Purdue (12-3 ATS) has a better ATS record versus ranked teams over that span (min. seven such games).

• Tennessee has won 17 straight home games (13-4 ATS) against Kentucky, by more than 22 points per game. Overall, the Volunteers are 16-5 ATS when hosting the Wildcats dating back to 1978, their best cover percentage against any opponent at home (min. six meetings in that span).

• The under is 14-4 in Kentucky conference games since the start of 2018.

Louisville Cardinals at No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-17, 64), 2:30 p.m. ET

• Louisville has lost three straight ATS and SU since its season-opening 35-21 win over Western Kentucky.

• Louisville is 5-1 ATS in non-conference games under Scott Satterfield.

• Notre Dame is 14-7-2 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite.

• Notre Dame has won 27 straight games as a double-digit favorite. It’s last loss under those circumstances came as a 20-point favorite against Duke in 2016.

• Notre Dame won the most recent meeting 35-17 in what was each team’s 2019 season opener. However, the Fighting Irish failed to cover as 19.5-point favorites.

No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies (-6.5, 54) at Mississippi State Bulldogs, 4 p.m. ET (on SECN)

• Texas A&M is 11-4 ATS as a favorite versus unranked opponents under Jimbo Fisher.

• Mississippi State has failed to cover in five straight games in October.

• The under is 22-11-1 when Fisher is a road favorite, including 15-6 when the total is below 55.

• The over is 11-5 when Mike Leach is an underdog and the total is below 55, although the over is just 6-5 against ranked opponents in those spots.

No. 5 North Carolina Tar Heels (-13, 64) at Florida State Seminoles, 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)

• North Carolina has covered in five of its last six games as a favorite.

• The current spread would be the most points North Carolina has been favored by against Florida State or Miami in the FBS era. (The Tar Heels covered as 12.5-point favorites versus Miami in 2015.) This is also just the fifth time in 36 meetings with the Seminoles or Hurricanes that the Tar Heels have been favorites dating back to 1978. North Carolina is 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) in the previous four, with the lone cover mentioned above.

• This will be the third time in his first five games with Florida State that Mike Norvell is a double-digit underdog. Norvell had been a double-digit underdog just once in 54 games with Memphis.

• The over is 11-2 when Mike Norvell is an underdog.

No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6, 57), 8 p.m. ET

• Since 2012, Georgia is 6-1 ATS (3-4 SU) versus AP top-5 teams, including 4-1 ATS (2-3 SU) under Kirby Smart. Smart is 5-3-1 ATS at Georgia as an underdog, but 5-1 ATS in his last six such games, including 2-0 ATS (0-2 SU) versus Alabama.

• Kirby Smart is 16-8-1 ATS against ranked opponents, tied for the second-best cover percentage in the FBS era with Urban Meyer and Ed Orgeron (min. 25 such games).

• Alabama has failed to cover the last four times it has faced an AP top-5 team, and is 11-15-1 ATS against top-5 opponents under Nick Saban.

• The over is 3-0 in Alabama games this season. Since 2000 (as far back as our database has over/under data), the Crimson Tide have never started a season with four straight overs.

• The under is 13-4 in Georgia games since the start of last season.

Boston College Eagles at No. 23 Virginia Tech Hokies (-11.5, 62), 8 p.m. ET (on ACCN)

• Boston College is 20-6-1 ATS against ACC opponents since 2017.

• Boston College is 21-9-1 ATS on the road since 2014, including 15-4 ATS as a road underdog.

• This will be the 11th time in 12 conference games since the start of last season that Boston College is an underdog. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS (6-4 SU) in the previous 10.

• Virginia Tech is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite, including four straight ATS losses as a double-digit favorite.

• The over is 3-0 in Virginia Tech games this season, but 1-3 in Boston College games.

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