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The 2022 NFL postseason is the most wide open it has ever been entering Conference Championship week. For the first time in over 45 seasons, no team has +200 or shorter title odds entering Conference Championship week. All four remaining teams have similar title odds, and that is reflected in this week’s betting lines.
For the third time in the Super Bowl era, neither Conference Championship game has a team favored by at least three points. It has happened twice previously, in 1997 and 1982. Not only that, both conference favorites have flipped in the last week. Last week, San Francisco and Kansas City were favored to win their respective conferences. Despite both teams winning last week, both are now underdogs this week.
Kansas City had been favored in 14 straight playoff games entering this week (the longest streak in the Super Bowl era), including all 12 starts by Patrick Mahomes. Now they are home underdogs for just the second time in Mahomes’ career. Kansas City also closed as a road favorite in Cincinnati earlier this season. It is the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team has been a road favorite in a regular-season meeting and then a home underdog in a playoff rematch.
While the biggest reason for the line move is Patrick Mahomes’ injury status, the two teams have also gone in opposite directions against the spread recently. Cincinnati is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 games, including 13-3 ATS in its past 16 games. Joe Burrow is a staggering 18-1 ATS in his past 19 games as a favorite of under seven points. Meanwhile, Kansas City is 7-11 ATS this season, the worst ATS percentage by any team entering the Conference Championship game since 1997.
In the late game Sunday, Kyle Shanahan puts his 7-1 ATS mark in the playoffs on the line in Philadelphia. San Francisco has won 12 straight games, going 10-2 ATS in that span, including 6-1 ATS with Brock Purdy under center. However, this would be the first time Purdy is an underdog. On the other side, Jalen Hurts is a perfect 7-0 ATS in his career as a single-digit home favorite.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
San Francisco is 13-6 ATS this season (unders: 11-8). Philadelphia is 9-9 ATS this season (overs: 10-8).
Kyle Shanahan is 7-1 ATS in playoff games, tied with Doug Pederson for the best ATS record of any coach in the Super Bowl era (minimum three games). He is 7-0 ATS in playoff games prior to the Super Bowl. San Francisco has covered five straight playoff games, the longest active streak by any team.
Brock Purdy is 6-1 ATS in his career as a starter, all as a favorite. It ties the fifth-longest favorite streak to begin a career by any quarterback since the 1970 merger (including playoffs).
San Francisco has won 12 straight games, going 10-2 ATS in that stretch, including 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games.
Kyle Shanahan is 19-10 ATS as a road underdog, including 12-3 ATS since 2019.
San Francisco is 12-2 ATS against conference opponents this season.
Jalen Hurts is 9-2-1 ATS as a home favorite in his career, including 7-0 ATS as a single-digit home favorite.
Five straight Philadelphia playoff games have gone under the total.
Overs are 12-4-1 in the past 17 NFC Championship games.
Unders were 2-0 in conference championship games last season after going 8-2 in the previous five years.
Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in conference championship games in the past five seasons.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:30 ET
Cincinnati is 13-5 ATS this season (unders: 10-7-1). Kansas City is 7-11 ATS this season (unders: 10-8). Kansas City’s 11 ATS losses are the most by any team entering the conference championship game in the Super Bowl era, and it is the worst ATS percentage by any team entering the game since 1997 (Green Bay). None of the previous five teams to have cover percentages below .400 entering the conference championship game have gone on to win the Super Bowl and only 1997 Green Bay even reached the game.
Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog on Sunday (as of now) for just the second time in his career (lost by 4 as 2.5-point home underdog vs Buffalo in Week 6). Entering this week, he had been favored in 47 of his 48 home starts, the second-highest percentage of any QB with at least 25 starts in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs). Only Roger Staubach (66 of 67 starts) has a higher percentage of home starts favored in (minimum 25 starts).
Kansas City has been favored in 14 straight playoff games entering this week, the longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era. Patrick Mahomes has never been a playoff underdog. He is the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to be favored in each of his first 12 playoff starts entering this week. His 12-game playoff favorite streak is tied for the second-longest streak in the Super Bowl era.
No team has been a home underdog in a Conference Championship game since 2017 Philadelphia. The previous two home underdogs in conference championships won the game outright (Philadelphia beat Minnesota as a 3-point underdog in 2017, Denver beat New England as a 3-point underdog in 2015).
Kansas City was a 2.5-point road favorite in Cincinnati in Week 13 when the two teams met during the regular season. Now, Kansas City is a home underdog in their playoff meeting. It is the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team has been a road favorite against an opponent in the regular season and then a home underdog for a playoff rematch. The other time was in the Wild Card Round this season, when Dallas was a road favorite in Tampa Bay in the playoffs after being a home underdog in Week 1.
Cincinnati is 21-5 ATS in its past 26 games including playoffs. Cincinnati is 13-5 ATS this season (second-best) and 27-12 ATS since the start of last season.
Cincinnati is 19-1 ATS in its past 20 games when not laying at least seven points with seven straight covers (Joe Burrow: 18-1 ATS in span).
Cincinnati has covered five straight road games (8-2 ATS on road this season).
Joe Burrow is 5-1 ATS in his playoff career (4-0 ATS as underdog, 1-1 ATS as favorite).
Joe Burrow is 3-0 outright against Patrick Mahomes, all as an underdog.
Kansas City is 2-11 ATS in conference games this season.
Kansas City is 0-4 ATS with more than six days of rest this season.
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