What you need to know for Tuesday’s games
Money Off the Mavs: The Mavericks have yet to cover a spread this season when on the second night of a back-to-back and are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven such spots dating back to last season (overs are 6-1 over that stretch).
Hot Hand Hardaway: Speaking of the Mavericks, maybe there is some money to be made investing in Tim Hardaway Jr. amid a hot stretch, as the scoring guard has averaged 23.3 points during his last four games, all starts. One of the best values of the three-game slate at just $4,400 on DraftKings, Hardaway Jr. is likely to play around 30 minutes with freedom to shoot from beyond against a Denver team that ranks 26th in defensive rating.
The Lake Show Is Back: The Lakers have covered 10 times this season and in eight of those games, over tickets have cashed. This offense has found it’s groove in December: Anthony Davis has 99 points in 78 minutes this month while Russell Westbrook has handed out 26 assists in his 58 minutes.
Boring Payday: The data shows that the public loves betting favorites and overs. That’s not just a basketball thing, that’s across all sports. Fade the public’s desire in this Miami/Detroit game tonight: the Heat are 4-8-2 ATS when favored this season with five outright losses while unders are 6-3 when the Pistons play a team that plays at a below average pace.
Backcourt Buys: Don’t worry about the fact Bruce Brown averages just 11.2 points for Denver, as he’s one of the more versatile glue guys in the league in that he’s capable of strong rebounding, defensive, and passing production. With Michael Porter Jr. ruled out and with Brown rostered in just a quarter of ESPN leagues, Brown is a strong streaming option ahead of this matchup with Dallas. For Detroit, Cade Cunningham remains out, which means another start for Killian Hayes as the primary point guard for the Pistons. In this role, Hayes (76% available) has averaged 15.3 points and 6.7 dimes during the past week and should play an important role setting the table against Miami tonight.
Games of the night
Best bet: Donovan Mitchell over 26.5 points. Mitchell and the Cavaliers lost to the Knicks on Sunday, which is bad news. The good news is that Mitchell faces a Lakers team that ranks 17th in points allowed per 100 possessions. This season, he averages 28.4 points per game. In this game, the Cavaliers should bounce back nicely. — Eric Moody
Fantasy streamer: Lonnie Walker IV (rostered in 29.2% of ESPN leagues) has scored 20 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. With a usage rate of 19.6%, he averages 31.2 MPG this season. Walker IV doesn’t have the highest ceiling playing alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis but does provide fantasy managers with a decent floor. — Moody
Source: Read Full Article